Trap Or New Beginning?
What TSF Is:
A comprehensive swingtrading resource that saves you time, analyzes the market and searches for interesting opportunities and setups in stocks
A trading educational resource that is aimed to help you build a methodology, process and risk management & execution framework to be able to trade according to good trading principles
A community with a private Discord
TSF - Analytics platform
What TSF Is Not:
A trade alert service. I share all of my own trades, but those are my own personal trades and thoughts that I journal. They are never a recommendation to buy or sell anything, nor any type of financial advice
Nor are the setups a recommendation to buy or sell anything, nor any type of financial advice. Every setup needs to trigger to become valid, I only share my own views on the setups and the stocks I talk about.
About The Semi Equipment Companies
TSF - analytics is the most powerful platform on the market for assessing internal thematic relative strength — and this is extremely useful when the market weakens.
Semiconductors recently declined hard, and you can use the platform to find what is resisting that correction — meaning which semiconductors stocks are outperforming the rest of the semiconductors — true leadership.
Because what outperforms it’s own group during weakness, will explode higher as soon as the group improves.
And I have designed a preset resisting correction scan — this ranks stocks that are recently outperforming their own group and are sitting close to their highs — and it prioritizes proximity to highs.
And I highlighted that semi equipment companies were clearly standing out earlier in the week in our discord.
The stocks were screaming at you they want higher, since they refuse to decline like the rest of the semis.
And TSF - Analytics gives you a systematic way to quantify this leadership.
And combining the signal of proximity to highs, with internal thematic relative strength is incredibly powerful.
Lets Look At Those Stocks Now
UCTT
KLAC
LRCX
AMAT
ASML
They are all breaking out to new highs with force, while most semis are still building and recovering.
Extremely useful information and this is how you stay ahead of the market — by noticing relative performance of stocks compared to their own theme.
Sometimes the best tools and platforms, are things you haven’t tried before.
Feedback from the community has been incredible. After you use TSF - analytics it will be tough to go back to anything else.
And the pipeline of upgrades that will roll out in the time ahead is comprehensive, just getting started.
TSF - Analytics Is Included In All Subscriptions To TSF
Last Weeks Market Analysis “Don’t Panic Yet” Is Now A Free Read
I think we did good, the market did not fool us, and that small bullish clue in small caps we saw last week proved to be an important clue.
This is what we saw in TSF - analytics one week ago
Small caps don’t underperform in true risk off. They closed at a weekly all time high by the way.
And I Shared Some Nice Bullish Clues Last Week Before We Turned With The TSF - Community
1. Dominance Of Short Term Hedging With VIX
While the longer term contracts remained in contango, with a divergence between how fear looked short term vs long term. Short term fear resolves quicker, and when VIX fades, the market rebounds.
2. Bullish Breadth Divergence
Market making lower lows but breadth flat or trending up is a bullish divergence.
3. No Real Selling And No Excessive Rotation
No expansion of Nasdaq net new lows seen in more significant events, and no excessive rotation making NYSE net new highs explode.
4. News Failure
When bad news can’t push the market down, a turn is often close.
Today’s Agenda
Bigger picture
A close look at the major indices and the levels to watch
Gamma and options positioning
Positioning of systematic strategies — CTAs & Vol control funds
Growth, value and what to expect
Breadth
VIX and VIX term structure
Sentiment cooled off but not really
The flow of capital shows us what is happening under the hood
Commercial hedgers
An awesome signal showing us the difference between a true top and a normal cool off
Price action of individual stocks
TSF - Market regime model
Some important charts
Today we will go through the market carefully, to be prepared for the week ahead.
And assess the market conditions, and see if the can understand if this is the true turn or not.
And in the end I will tie everything together for you and give you my thoughts.