The Roadmap
The TSF - Focus Stocks Will Be Sent Out Tonight
To all paid subscribers — with the best setups and opportunities going into this week, complete with methods on how to catch them.
Last Weeks Market Analysis Is Now A Free Read
So you can get an idea of what 400 members of TSF prepare themselves with heading into every week.
This was the bottomline, full analysis linked below.
We Have Largely Followed The Roadmap From Last Week
We bounced into first resistance, failed to reclaim the 200 SMA and made a followthrough lower.
Bears are in full control.
Structure > Noise
And whenever the market becomes difficult, you will here strong opinions everywhere.
Trapped longs capitulating becoming bearish late, unfortunately being smoked both being long and short — because they adapt too late.
Chronic bears becoming loud, calling for a 1929 style market crash.
And my goal with TSF is to run it with sober and calm clarity. We navigate the market by studying history, price action and data.
I have very few opinions about the market — because strong opinions rarely make you money in the market.
We navigated the 2025 bear market and recovery very well, and I will continue to do my best to navigate this and future corrections as well.
You Should Prepare For The Next Phase — Before That Phase Has Arrived
In December we started seeing what I called the perfect storm of complacency, euphoria and skewed positioning to the upside — late cycle behavior often seen before major tops in the market.
And Last Week I Told You The Details In Breadth Matter
And one of the most common things you here about, is that we are oversold and a low is close.
The problem is that people most often focus on the wrong things when assessing breadth.
Breadth must be assessed in the context of several breadth readings — to make sense of the current situation.
And last week I told you the breadth setup favored a dead cat and not a low to trust — and I explained to you why here.
And We Put In A Dead Cat Bounce And Dump
Lets Start With Justin Mami’s Sentiment Cycle
The sentiment cycle is a timeless pattern from Justin Mami’s book from 1999, which describes the phases and behavior of a normal market cycle.
Because the market moves in repeatable cycles, with similar characteristics as the cycle progresses.
And they are repeatable because the market is a product of human behavior such as fear, greed, panic and complacency.
And Here Is The First Time I Showed You The Sentiment Cycle
After the October decline we took a look at it, because I thought it was becoming relevant, and I gave you my thoughts on what might come.
And We Took A Look At It Again A Couple Of Weeks Ago
Where Are We Now?
Likely Disbelief And Waiting For Panic And The Trap
As always we remain flexible and objective, and news can change the narrative.
But beware of a trap soon, because we rarely move down in a straight line, yet the path down can remain deep and full of traps.
The Easiest Way To Make Money Is To Prevent Loss
And this is key to understand, downside protection has been and still is the name of the game. And we have been positioned accordingly.
In every decline we will rip up violently, but in true distribution most stocks take one step up and two steps down — as you might have noticed.
And what we do at TSF, is study the market in detail every week, so we can be positioned correctly.
Today’s analysis is a long one, I have a lot of things to show you this week, because we see several interesting observations we need to pay attention to.
I have several backtests to show you as well, and we will go through the market carefully assessing conditions and what to expect from here.
Grab a coffee and enjoy the read.
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