Institutional Repositioning
What TSF Is
A swing-trading resource that saves you time — analyzing the market and surfacing interesting opportunities and setups.
Trading education to help you build your own methodology, process, and risk-management & execution framework around sound principles.
A community with 400+ members, with a private Discord.
The TSF Analytics platform — thesetupfactory.com
What TSF Is Not
A trade-alert service. I share all of my own trades, but those are my personal trades and journaled thoughts — never a recommendation to buy or sell anything, nor is it financial advice.
Signals to act on. The setups aren’t recommendations either. Every setup has to trigger to become valid; I only share my own views on the setups and the stocks I discuss.
We Must Always Remember To Zoom Out
Because it’s very common to become too bearish at the exact worst time. Weakness looks scary as it happens, but as long as bigger picture structure is intact, we should give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.
Shared some thoughts on X end of July.
Things can change quick, it is important to always remain open minded, arguing with price is a losing battle.
Lets Start With The Miners
Almost two weeks ago the metals and miners started popping up on our RS acceleration theme leaderboard in TSF -Analytics.
This is how it looked like back then — huge burst in RS - acceleration, and when the whole group moves it adds some conviction to it.
And assets will often exhibit strong RS acceleration before the turn is obvious when looking at price.
Very strong move, and I recommend everyone to keep an eye on our thematic leaderboard, since it’s extremely time-consuming to daily check all sectors, themes and assets — the leaderboard is a good way to see if something might be turning or changing.
All themes and sectors that turn will be very likely pop up on the leaderboard, because they will show strong RS acceleration and short term RS.
We Also Noticed That Something Was Up In Copper
Same workflow, I check the leaderboard and see what stands out. Then I look at the charts and see if they confirm.
Very nice move in copper miners.
We Also Saw A Nice Bullish Clue In Last Sunday’s Market Analysis
When we have accelerated selling we usually don’t see bid coming into growth stocks.
And we actually saw rotation starting into growth and high beta prior to last week, which was visible in TSF - analytics.
Today’s Agenda
A close look at the major indices and the levels to watch
Gamma & Skew
CTA positioning can become an issue
Vol control fund positioning
MAGS is key
Tracking peak rotation is key
Breadth
VIX & VIX term structure worth paying attention to
Sentiment neutral?
Hedging patterns
Smart money positioning with an important change
The trend of financial conditions matter alot
Always watch the bond market
Price action of individual stocks
TSF - Market regime model
TSF - Market correction Model
Some important charts — Semiconductor/memory/software deep dive
And in the end I tie everything together and give you my thoughts.
Grab a coffee and enjoy the read.