Inflection Point
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Signals to act on. The setups aren’t recommendations either. Every setup has to trigger to become valid; I only share my own views on the setups and the stocks I discuss.
TSF - Focus Stocks Will Be Sent Out Tonight
To all paid subscribers — with the best setups and opportunities I see going into this week.
The Summer Market Continues To Chop Around
S&P 500 might be inches from ATH, but under the hood there is some significant weakness building up.
Weakness that is not as easily visible with breadth because breadth lags. Here we see what sectors are showing relative strength/relative weakness and acceleration/deceleration of relative performance in TSF - Analytics.
Extreme amount of lagging groups and very very narrow leadership after last week.
The indices are holding up due to the MAGS rotational cycle that we highlighted was very likely to start in the end of June.
Strong Bid Into MAGS
And at the same time rotation out of equal-weighted S&P 500 and small caps.
And it is common to see rotation into MAGS ahead of earnings season, but this constant rotation is also why we have remained rangebound, since sectors have not been bidding together allowing for a stronger directional move in the indices.
Lets See How We Did Last Week
We expected a test down that would be bought up and a continued choppy grind higher.
So Far So Good
Bulls defended where they should and we continue to grind higher in a choppy manner.
Important spot for the bulls here, next week will be key.
And next week we have CPI and OPEX, as well as earnings season starting with the banks reporting which is always important.
Today’s Agenda
A close look at the major indices and the levels to watch
Gamma, skew & implied volatility
CTAs and vol control fund positioning
State of the rotation trade
Dispersion & correlation
Looming unwind?
Breadth
VIX and VIX term structure
Sentiment in limbo
Credit spreads
Hedge funds and commercial hedgers positioning
Half-time with the stats on our side
High-beta
A closer look at the semis + a backtest
Some important charts
And in the end I tie everything together and give you my thoughts.
Grab a coffee and enjoy the read!
